Global Warming: A Clear and Present Danger.

Introduction:

United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of 195 member states dedicated to the assessment of scientific data related to the climate crisis, projects that if the planet were to warm by more than 2℃ above pre-industrial levels, the world would experience disastrous environmental consequences (Park, 2015). We have already warmed the planet about 1 degree Celsius since the industrial revolution, and thus are halfway point to environmental chaos. ((World Resources Institute, 2014), (Meinshausen, 2015), (Mattews, 2017)). In fact, the world is on track for a rise of nearly 3℃ above pre-industrial levels (Shukla, 2022).

Evolution of global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the period of instrumental observations.

Allen, M.R., O.P. Dube, W. Solecki, F. Aragón-Durand, W. Cramer, S. Humphreys, M. Kainuma, J. Kala, N. Mahowald, Y. Mulugetta, R. Perez, M. Wairiu, and K. Zickfeld, 2018: Framing and Context. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 49-92, doi:10.1017/9781009157940.003.

IPCC has warned us on the disastrous environmental consequences of 2℃ mark – sea levels would rise by a meter or more swallowing up coastal and low-lying island populations; intense wildfires would rage around the world consuming most of the planet’s remaining forests; and extreme weather events, such as tornadoes and hurricanes, would be more common (Park, 2015). However, there is a strong and vocal ‘climate change deniers’ community on the internet that’s unfortunately also receives sporadic unsubstantiated endorsements from the highest echelons.

Assessment of climate change derived from the temperature and precipitation records around the world have provided unequivocal confirmation of global warming over the past century and human activities have played a key role in this (USGS, 2023) (NASA, 2023). In its starkest message yet, IPCC exhorts us to take extreme and immediate steps to avert climate disaster. The report suggests that aggressive measures may limit the increase and bring temperatures back, however, the window is rapidly closing and time has almost run out. Models suggest that global emissions need to peak, at the latest, by 2025 and then decline rapidly for the world to have a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5℃. Carbon emissions would need to nearly halve by 2030 and hit ‘net zero’ in the early 2050s to meet this goal (Tollefson, 2022).

Despite these grim projections, concerted and robust efforts to combat global warming are lacking, key reasons being conflicting information from various resources and the low level of general awareness of these hazards. Studies demonstrate that enhanced knowledge avoids practices detrimental to the environment (New scientist, 2021) (Grundmann, 2013), (Fienberg 2011) (Park, 2015) (Grundmann, 2013) (Bolsen, 2015) (Medhaung, 2017) (Hai, 2022) (Ritter, 2018) (Hoffmann, 2022) (Yang, 2021) (Descales, 2022) (Luber, 2009) (Houghton, 2005) (Friedrich, 2016). Therefore there is an urgent need to enhance the comprehensive awareness of the existence, causes, and effects of these largely preventable issues so that all stakeholders can work together to implement remedial strategies with immediate effect.

Existence:

Existence of global warming is visible around the globe. Areas around Greater Sydney in Australia set new records for the highest mean daily maximum temperature for July, rainfall was much below average, with a few sites recording their lowest July rainfall on record and several of their driest in more than 20 years (Ritter, 2018). The Aral sea, once the fourth largest inland lake in the world, is now only 12% of its approximate surface area. This reduction of water also leads to desertification and soil erosion all around the world (Dou et. al, 2022). The area covered by the arctic icecap has shrunk by more than half the size in just the last 50 years ago with dramatic effects. Polar bears have become an endangered species, fish never found in the arctic are migrating to its warming waters, and thawing tundra is being replaced with temperate forests (Swart, 2017) (Borgerson, 2008) (Descals, 2022). In many regions, warming has already surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. More than one-fifth of all humans now live in regions that have already seen warming greater than 1.5 degrees Celsius in at least one season (Buis, 2019).

Weather events are emerging unnaturally. Increases in sea surface temperature have caused an increase in tropical cyclone intensity leading to an increase in the height of storm surges. “Large populations living along South Asia’s coastline are facing the brunt of increasing tropical cyclones.” (Luber, 2009) (Hoffmann, 2022) (Yang 2021) (Descals, 2022).

Reasons:

A prime reason for climate change is our over dependence on fossil fuels that release carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses

Human experience of present-day warming. Different shades of pink to purple indicated by the inset histogram show estimated warming for the season that has warmed the most at a given location between the periods 1850–1900 and 2006–2015, during which global average temperatures rose by 0.91°C in this dataset. Cowtan, K. and R.G. Way, 2014: Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140(683), 1935–1944, doi:10.1002/qj.2297.

into the atmosphere heating the planet and altering the climate system (Paul, 2022) (Union of concerned scientists, 2008). Seventy three percent of global greenhouse gas emissions come from usage of fossil fuels in industry, buildings, and transport (Park, 2015) (Magnus, 2011) (East-West Center, 2021) (Fredrichm, 2016). This dependence on fossil fuels is increasing exponentially with growing industrialization and population (Magnus, 2011) (East-West Center, 2021). Almost 50 years back, in 1970, the human population of 3 and a half billion people had already become too large for the Earth to sustain (World Wildlife Fund). Now our population is 8 billion.

Agriculture, Forestry and other land use (AFOLU) activities to sustain this large population are another leading contributors (23%) to the global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (New scientist, 2021) (Chakir 2017) (Yamanoshita, 2017). With the expansion of these activities, earth is suffering a crisis of mass extinction of non-human species on a scale unseen since the dinosaurs and that’s in turn affecting humanity from the vanishing wild (Pelly, 2023).

A ball-and-cup depiction of a regime shift. The cup on the right represents a stable basin of attraction (the Holocene) and the orange ball, the state of the Earth System. The cup on the left and the pink ball represent a potential state (the Anthropocene) of the Earth System. Under gradual anthropogenic forcing, the cup becomes shallower and finally disappears (a threshold, ca. 1950), causing the ball to roll to the left (the regime shift) into the trajectory of the Anthropocene toward a potential future basin of attraction. The symbol τ represents the response time of the system to small perturbations.

Lenton, T. M., H. Held, E. Kiegler, J. W. Hall, W. Lucht, S. Rahmstorf, and H. J. Schellnhuber (2008), Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 1786–1793, doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105.

Steffen, W., Leinfelder, R., Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, C.N., Williams, M., Summerhayes, C., Barnosky, A.D., Cearreta, A., Crutzen, P., Edgeworth, M., Ellis, E.C., Fairchild, I.J., Galuszka, A., Grinevald, J., Haywood, A., Ivar do Sul, J., Jeandel, C., McNeill, J.R., Odada, E., Oreskes, N., Revkin, A., Richter, D.d., Syvitski, J., Vidas, D., Wagreich, M., Wing, S.L., Wolfe, A.P. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2016), Stratigraphic and Earth System approaches to defining the Anthropocene. Earth’s Future, 4: 324-345. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000379

Consequences:

Earth was set to have a natural course of events for all species. Humans came along later in the earth’s life and due to various capabilities including intelligence and tool crafting, quickly reached the top of the food chain while they were not really prepared for that position. This power without responsibility has prompted humans to mass produce the tools that promote certain aspects of our existence, while significantly damaging others. This was fueled by the industrial revolution that developed vast varieties of products very efficiently. However, in order to continue these productions, energy was needed and fossil fuels were identified as the best available option. It propelled us into a whole series of disasters with global warming and its consequences on all biological and physical systems (Kerr, 2007).

Over the course of millennia, earth bred its constituents and shaped their evolution as per changing environments for a better chance of survival. Global warming is however taking away the chance of adaptation because of the rapid change of climate that is unnatural (Pungaire, 2019) (Breitburg 2018) (Mason, 2022) (Wikelski, 2016). Such unnatural changes have been throwing their instinctual adaptation off and the whole system of life is collapsing.

Aquatic Life:  An important consequence is the acidity of the oceans. Carbon dioxide dissolves in oceans enhancing its acidity (Abirami, 2021), (Brewer, 2009) threatening aquatic life, especially the corals (Houghton, 2005). This also switches the predator prey dynamics (Yanik 2007). As some species are better equipped to survive changing pH as opposed to others, this disrupts the food chain altering the natural ecosystems. Consequently, we are seeing declining biodiversity in aquatic systems around the world and is poised to cause the extinction of several aquatic organisms and species (Yanik, 2017). Thus the changing aquatic ecology is detrimental to survival on earth for not just aquatic but every species (Wikelski, 2016) (Breitburg, 2018).

Global warming is promoting algae blooms that release “algal toxins”. When aquatic animals ingest the toxins, they get contaminated with unknown bacteria (Lansberg, 2010) and when these contaminated aquatic animals are consumed as food by humans, they can cause severe toxicities and even death (Yanik, 2017). Algal blooms also produce powerful liver toxins that are associated with an increased incidence of hepatic cancer; these toxins are spreading from tropical waters to historically cooler waters as surface water temperatures rise (Luber 2009). Thus not only the animals are getting contaminated, the water itself is getting contaminated including our drinking water, posing serious threats to public health infrastructure (Luber, 2009).

Land Life:   Global warming is challenging every species (Park, 2015). Animal habitats and biodiversity are getting increasingly impacted due to global warming, pollution load, and organic matter pollution (Reddy et al., 2007) (Pasha et al., 2012) (Abdullah et al., 2013) (Yanik, 2017). Some habitats have managed to survive so far but will eventually perish if we continue our actions (Mason, 2022) (Kerr, 2007). It is affecting the food chain as well. The predator and prey systems which have been set by our natural environments are being affected differently causing overpopulation of some species and under population of others, eventually leading to imbalances and extinction. It is also altering a very important natural system of our ecosystems known as the carbon and nutrient cycles (Yanik, 2017). These cycles ensure that all species get the nutrients they need to survive. However, pollution is altering these cycles, damaging the ecosystem greatly (Breitburg, 2018) (Mason, 2022).

Weather patterns:  One of the most affected aspects of the environment from global warming is the weather (Houghton, 2005). The trapped greenhouse gasses in our environment keep the heat trapped changing the natural events we experience, specifically the extreme weather events we live through. Such extreme weather events are one of the fastest expanding consequences of global warming (Ritter, 2018) with increasing population and demands for industrialization. IPCC projects that it is very likely (>90% probability) that heat waves will become more intense and more frequent and heavy precipitation events will become more frequent. It is likely (>66% probability) that tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and heavier rainfall, increase in areas affected by drought, and increase in incidence of extremely high sea level, IPCC adds further.

Arctic meltdown:   As cited previously, the area covered by the arctic icecap has shrunk by more than half the size in just the last 50 years (Swart, 2017) (Borgerson, 2008) (Descals, 2022). This impacts the ice-albedo effect (Borgerson, 2008). Albedo is the unit used for measuring the reflectivity of a surface. The albedo of ice is critical for our environment as it reflects back the radiation from outer space away from earth to keep the planet cool. With the loss of the arctic icecap, these regions are losing their albedo, known as the ice-albedo feedback loop and earth is getting even more susceptible to global warming (Saert, 2017).

Socio-political impacts:   Arctic meltdown also has socio-political implications (Hai, 2022). The arctic region was a preserved habitat that didn’t have much use to humans and was left for animals to inhabit. As the arctic is melting it is opening a new shipping passage, a commercial route that is much faster, efficient, profitable, and therefore a new resource to be seized, creating a situation that is bound to raise territorial disputes (Borgerson, 2008). Outside the arctic region, climate change is leading to forced migration globally and the natural resource crisis arising from climate change is also predicted to increase the risk of civil conflicts such as terrorism and warfare, thereby threatening global security (New scientist, 2021).

Health Issues: The combination of global warming and air pollution is slowly killing our environment and quickly killing ourselves (Calleja-Aguis, 2021). Rising ambient temperature, deteriorating water availability, more intense and frequent floods and droughts are some of the contributory factors leading to increasing spread of communicable diseases (Houghton, 2005). Global warming is also adversely impacting the nutritional quality of our food which in turn weakens our immunity (Rossati, 2017). The atmospheric heat isn’t just causing morbidities but also mortality. In France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain over 20,000 deaths were attributed to the unrelenting heat last year (Millan, 2022); and by 2050 such a summer would be likely to be the norm (Houghton, 2005).

Key pathways by which humans are exposed to health threats from climate drivers, and potential resulting mental health and well-being outcomes (center boxes). These exposure pathways exist within the context of other factors that positively or negatively influence health outcomes (gray side boxes). Key factors that influence health outcomes and vulnerability for individuals are shown in the right box, and include social determinants of health and behavioral choices. Key factors that influence health outcomes and vulnerability at larger community or societal scales, such as natural and built environments, governance and management, and institutions, are shown in the left box. All of these influencing factors may also be affected by climate change.

Balbus, J. et al. Ch. 1: Introduction: Climate Change and Human Health. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 25–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.7930/J0VX0DFW

This is an original figure provided by Daniel Dodgen, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Darrin Donato, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Trina Dutta, Formerly of U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Nancy Kelly, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Annette La Greca, University of Miami Joshua Morganstein, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences Joseph Reser, Griffith University Josef Ruzek, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Shulamit Schweitzer, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Mark Shimamoto, University Corporation of Atmospheric Research, U.S. Global Change Research Program Robert Ursano, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

Mental Health: Climate change is impacting mental health as well. Recent studies have demonstrated that not only does global warming have a direct link to respiratory diseases in the world, but they also have a direct correlation with the suicide rates all across the world (New scientist, 2021). These problems can lead to societal destruction not just from the chaos on the outside, but long term depression for the new generations to come.

Remedial actions:

As IPCC reiterates, we have to take extreme and immediate steps to prevent further escalation of this global issue. There are many corporations who are trying to do this, but it’s not such an easy task and it is very costly. However, it is possible in a variety of ways, including step-by-step planning. For example, the shipping company Maersk, is currently leading a campaign to make their carbon footprint to net zero emissions as quick as possible. The shipping industry releases about 3.5 billion tonnes of CO₂ every year while performing their services. However, Maersk decided to break the cycle and create an efficient way to ship materials and drop their carbon footprint to net zero emissions. They did this by creating a roadmap of their carbon reduction journey with key milestones they have to achieve on certain dates (Maersk, 2022).

Different 1.5°C pathways Schematic illustration of the relationship between (a) global mean surface temperature (GMST) change; (b) annual rates of CO₂ emissions, assuming constant fractional contribution of non-CO₂ forcing to total human-induced warming; (c) total cumulative CO₂ emissions (solid lines) and the fraction thereof remaining in the atmosphere (dashed lines; these also indicates changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations); and (d) a time-integrated impact, such as sea level rise, that continues to increase even after GMST has stabilized. Colours indicate different 1.5°C pathways. Brown: GMST remaining below and stabilizing at 1.5°C in 2100; Green: a delayed start but faster emission reductions pathway with GMST remaining below and reaching 1.5°C earlier; Blue: a pathway temporarily exceeding 1.5°C, with temperatures reduced to 1.5°C by net negative CO₂ emissions after temperatures peak; and Yellow: a pathway peaking at 1.5°C and subsequently declining.

Ref: Allen, M.R., O.P. Dube, W. Solecki, F. Aragón-Durand, W. Cramer, S. Humphreys, M. Kainuma, J. Kala, N. Mahowald, Y. Mulugetta, R. Perez, M. Wairiu, and K. Zickfeld, 2018: Framing and Context. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 49-92, doi:10.1017/9781009157940.003.

It’s not, however, just corporations that pollute our environment though, our whole world does. Our primary method to gain energy is burning fossil fuels, the very source of greenhouse gasses. In order to stop this, we must create clean and renewable energy sources, like for example, nanogenerators which turn mechanical vibrations into electrical energy.

While reducing our carbon footprint will immensely help, it won’t get rid of what we’ve already done to our world. Although some problems are irreversible, it is still possible to save our world and stop more problems from occurring. Therefore, the next step would be to clean up our environment. One very major contribution could be reforestation, as plants play a major role in absorbing the greenhouse gasses that we emit into our atmosphere (nature, 2012). Another contribution could be creating carbon capture technologies, like for example the direct air capture technology that takes in air from the atmosphere and traps co2 in its filters.

Conclusion:

Global warming is a clear and present danger. Human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disruption in nature and affecting the lives of billions of people around the world, despite efforts to reduce the risks. People and ecosystems least able to cope are being hardest hit. The latest report of IPCC issues a dire warning about the consequences of inaction. It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks. The world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F). Even temporarily exceeding this warming level will result in additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible. Risks for society will increase, including to infrastructure and low-lying coastal settlements (IPCC, 2022).

Causal association of global warming with innumerable detrimental effects has been conclusively proven through scientific studies. Vested interests and myopic vision of decision makers have since long worsened the situation, who also proactively prevent the awareness of these existential threats. Studies have shown that people who receive proper education about the environment act responsibly; however, there is a significant void in awareness of environmental issues among the general population. There is an urgent need to educate people about the problem, causes, and consequences of global warming as a critical step.

Clean energy investment is finally starting to pick up. It was expected to exceed USD 1.4 trillion in 2022, accounting for almost three-quarters of the growth in overall energy investment. The annual average growth rate in clean energy investment in the five years after the signature of the Paris Agreement in 2015 was just over 2%, but since 2020 the rate has risen to 12%. It is still well short of what is required to hit international climate goals. Currently about 5% of energy globally comes from solar and wind power. However, for the world to meet its ambitious net zero carbon emissions targets, that share needs to grow to 60% by 2050. Getting there over the next three decades could require $100 trillion in clean energy investment according to IRENA. (BP Energy Outlook, IRENA, Lazard, Our World in Data. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of May 17, 2022.) Evidently, we are trailing behind but atleast the course correction has started to gain momentum.

With awareness and education, we may reverse the unsustainable course of our actions. Though long overdue, the world seems to be waking up to the urgent need of endeavors that reduce the carbon footprint and steer our planet into safer directions.

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